Former President Donald Trump is the favorite to win Florida’s November election, but polls show the race in the Sunshine State could still be close.

A recent survey of 600 registered voters conducted by the Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group on September 20 and 23 found Trump with a 1-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida (48% to 47). The results have a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percentage points.

The poll shows the race is tighter than other polls in Florida. It was published before the Democratic National Committee announced in November that it considered Florida and its 30 Electoral College votes a “priority state that we know Democrats can win.” They will invest more than $400,000 to improve Harris’ chances.

Florida was once the most important swing state in the country, as seen when only a few hundred votes remained in the state in the entire 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Florida is believed to have become more Republican in recent years following Trump’s election victories in 2016 and 2020. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also won a decisive re-election victory in 2022, defeating Democrat Charlie Crist by 19 points.

In November, Florida will vote on repealing the six-week abortion ban. Democrats believe putting the hot-button issue of abortion access on the ballot will help them in both presidential and statewide races.

Thomas Gift, a political science professor and director of the Center for American Politics at University College London, previously said that while Harris “looks likely” to lose Florida, Trump may have to work even harder to attract voters in the state than he would like.

“The mere fact that Trump will have to campaign vigorously in Florida could divert resources away from real swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan,” Gift said. Newsweek.

“Even if Harris loses Florida, which certainly looks likely, it could cost Trump elsewhere if he is forced to devote limited time, resources and energy to strengthening his advantage in the Sunshine State.”

Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaign teams for comment via email.

Other polls beyond the Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group poll give Trump a firmer lead in Florida.

According to 538’s live tracker, the former president’s current average lead over Harris in Florida is 4.1 points. That’s a larger margin of victory than the 3.3 points by which Trump defeated President Joe Biden in 2020.

A September 3–5 survey of 815 likely voters conducted by Emerson College/The Hill showed Trump defeating Harris in Florida by 5 points (50% to 45). The results have a margin or error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Trump also leads Harris in Florida by 5 points (50% to 45) in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll conducted Sept. 16-19 among 1,602 likely voters.

The latest Morning Consult poll, conducted Sept. 9-18 among 2,948 likely voters, gave Trump a 3-point lead over Harris in Florida (50% to 47).

Forecaster The race for the White House gives Trump an 83% chance of winning Florida in the November elections.