Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a race that, despite historical developments, refuses to move beyond the margin of error in polls, and external factors are starting to play an increasingly important role.

The two assassination attempts, the debate, the controversy over conspiracy theories and Trump campaign theorists and more largely failed to move the electoral needle in a meaningful way, leaving players on the court seeking help in the stands ahead of Election Day.

For Trump, recent efforts to change the way electoral votes are counted in Nebraska and change the rules in Georgia amounted to an attempt to gain advantage in key battlegrounds. Meanwhile, Harris is banking on referendums on abortion access to juice turnout, hoping the firestorm over North Carolina’s governor and GOP candidate for governor will depress Republicans in the purple state.

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Taken together, these maneuvers serve as a way to find some — any — advantage, even if it’s on the margins, in a race where poll after poll remains hotly contested.

“With a highly polarized electorate, many states and many elections come down to winning or losing on the margins, so every detail helps,” said Morgan Jackson, a North Carolina Democratic strategist.

“It’s a 3-point break environment,” he added. “People are just closed off. Forty-seven percent of people are locked in on one side, 47% of people are locked in on the other side, and whoever can move the needle on the margin will win. “

The need to find an edge has been emphasized in most national and swing state polls, which rarely show either side with an advantage beyond the margin of error. Since late July, the polling average of 538 has not risen above Harris’s 3.7-point lead, leaving Democrats in a bad spot and Republicans out of the game.

Not because I don’t try.

The two assassination attempts against Trump are a black swan event that would normally generate an outpouring of goodwill towards the candidate. On the other hand, Harris’ debate performance and the controversy surrounding the former president over his remarks about legal immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, and ties to conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer could help raise the vice president’s profile in yesterday’s political climate.

However, since each candidate enjoys high support, they are forced to look for promotions elsewhere.

Trump’s allies have pushed through new vote-counting rules in Georgia, including counting ballots by hand instead of relying on machines – a push that the former president said would help eliminate fraud but experts say will instead lead to more errors.

He also led a campaign to push for Nebraska’s vote count to be based on a winner-take-all system rather than allocating Electoral College votes by congressional districts, giving Harris a chance to win one vote in Omaha. This effort failed due to insufficient support among Republican state legislators.

Harris is counting on a base fueled by abortion ballot initiatives to carry her to victory in target states like Arizona, Florida and Nevada. And Robinson’s scandal, which includes posts on a pornographic website chat in which he called himself a “black NAZI,” takes place in the only swing state that went to Trump in 2020 and is one Democrats say is reversible.

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“When it comes to abortion referenda, ballot counting or Robinson, you don’t raise a single issue here. Maybe you’re moving several thousand voices. Will these states come down to just a few thousand votes? , that’s really the fundamental question,” said one former senior Trump administration official. “You’re trying to get your pieces.”

The importance of external factors makes sense in a race where candidate Trump is widely recognized. Harris has the ability to shape voters’ perceptions of her, but she’s also a prominent political figure, having spent four years as a California senator and nearly four more years in her current position.

“A little bit,” a source familiar with the Harris campaign’s thinking replied when asked if they were surprised by the general lack of movement during the race. “We all know how well-defined and well-known Trump is, so it shouldn’t be surprising that it’s harder to change opinions about him. “But given voters’ lack of familiarity with the vice president, I expected that by all accounts, a strong debate performance would have done more to move the needle for her.”

“Listen, (Trump) had the best 10 weeks of his political career this summer, and Harris had the best 10 weeks of any Democrat in history, and we’re exactly where we were three months ago,” added Dave Carney, GOP Strategist and head of Trump support great PAC.

Relying on external factors is not a completely original tactic.

Karen Finney, a Democratic strategist who worked on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, noted that former President George W. Bush in 2004 relied on anti-same-sex marriage ballot initiatives to generate enthusiasm among conservatives, and that former President Bill Clinton traveled to a 2106 fundraiser in Utah, a deep red bastion, aimed at making gains among Mormon voters who were skeptical of Trump. The Clinton campaign also published an article in the state newspaper.

“Campaigns are looking for places where they can gain just a little bit of an edge, and sometimes it happens in unexpected places,” Finney said. “Given how close the margins are, you don’t want to leave anything on the table.”

It is unclear how much the candidates will gain.

Bush cruised to victory in 2004, but that victory was largely attributed to the country re-electing a wartime commander in chief. And Clinton famously lost to Trump.

But strategists from both parties say it’s worth at least trying

“There is no one who doesn’t have an opinion about Donald Trump, and that’s not going to change,” said Peter Giangreco, a Democratic strategist and veteran of the presidential campaign. “So if you can’t influence turnout, what else are you going to do?”

Trump and Harris are relying on external factors to sway a stubbornly competitive race. Originally appeared on abcnews.go.com