Republican Tim Sheehy has gained a consistent lead in the polls over Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in what could be a crucial 2024 Senate race.

Montana, typically a ruby ​​red state, is hosting one of the most competitive Senate elections of the cycle. Tester, a centrist Democrat who has served as senator since 2006, has outperformed other Democrats in the state in the past, and much of the party may hinge on his ability to win in November.

But a flurry of recent polls showing Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL officer and businessman, in the lead has raised concerns about whether he can win Montana this year. Turnout is expected to be high in a state that former President Donald Trump will almost certainly win. Montana’s history of ticket splitting has also diminished in recent years.

While Sheehy has benefited from strong polling numbers, Tester still has a fundraising advantage.

In that campaign, Tester raised about $43 million and Sheehy raised nearly $14 million, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data. Meanwhile, Tester spent more than $32.6 million and Sheehy spent more than $10.6 million, the nonprofit OpenSecrets reported.

Tester had about $10.9 million in the bank at the end of June, compared to $1.7 million for Sheehy, according to the FEC. Fundraising is crucial for any Senate candidate, but Montana is a smaller, generally cheaper state with fewer media markets than other key Senate races in states like Pennsylvania and Texas.

The amount of money both sides have put into the race is testament to its importance this year. Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate and are expected to lose at least the seat vacated by West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin.

That means Democrats need to win every other seat they currently hold, or flip one elsewhere, to retain their majority in a November map that was seen as particularly challenging. Montana is considered a tipping point for Senate control, and Ohio is another Democrat-controlled seat in a Republican-leaning state seen as a potential GOP repositioner.

It still outperformed Sheehy in the second quarter, bringing in $10.5 million compared to Sheehy’s $5.3 million, according to the Helena-based Tester. Independent record.

Outside PACs also spent tens of millions of dollars on the race, according to OpenSecrets.

Republican Party-supporting PACs spent more than $13 million on ads supporting Sheehy and more than $30 million opposing Tester. Democratic-leaning PACs spent $3.5 million supporting Tester and nearly $31 million opposing Sheehy, according to the nonprofit.

The Last Best Place PAC, which HuffPost reports has ties to Democratic leadership, was the biggest outside spender in the race, spending $19 million. Meanwhile, the Republican Party-affiliated PAC More Jobs, Less Government spent $18.8 million on the election, according to OpenSecrets.

Tester spokeswoman Monica Robinson said Newsweek on Friday that the senator is “no stranger to tough races.”

“He won three in a row because he has a strong coalition of support across the state, including independent voters and Republicans, and he has a history of supporting Montana. Montanans know that Big Sandy farmer is the best choice to defend Montana, not out-of-state multimillionaire Tim Sheehy, who doesn’t understand our way of life and is changing Montana for the worse,” Robinson said.

Newsweek I have also reached out to the Sheehy campaign for comment via email.

FiveThirtyEight’s polling totals gave Sheehy a 3.7-point lead over Tester on Thursday after weeks of strong GOP polling in the state.

An RMG Research/Napolitan Institute poll of 491 likely voters conducted September 12–19 found Sheehy up seven points (50 to 43 percent).

That poll showed Tester ahead as recently as last month, and an Aug. 6-14 poll of 540 registered voters showed Tester up by five points (49% to 44%).

The Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research/AARP poll of 600 likely voters from Aug. 25 to 29 found Sheehy up six points in the head-to-head race (51% to 45%).

Elsewhere, a poll by American Pulse Research & Polling/KULR-TV showed Sheehy with a 6-point lead over Tester (51% to 45%). In the period from August 10 to 12, 538 registered voters took part.

Sheehy, a Trump endorser, came under scrutiny after a Native American news publication published audio recordings of Sheehy allegedly using stereotypes about Native people. His spokesman told the Associated Press: “What people are implying about him is simply not who he is.”

After a wave of polls showing Sheehy ahead, Democrats this week announced plans to make new investments in Senate races in Florida and Texas, suggesting the Montana race may be increasingly out of reach.

While incumbent GOP senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are considered front-runners, recent polls have shown the states may be closer than Montana as Democratic challengers Rep. Colin Allred and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell gain ground.

The Cook Political Report rates the Montana Senate bid as “lean Republican,” meaning it is “considered competitive” but the GOP “has the advantage.”

On September 6, the Sabato Crystal Ball organization reclassified the race from a throwaway to a Lean Republican, and forecaster Kyle Kondik wrote that “history and recent trends are simply not on Tester’s side.”

“He is among a relatively small number of partisan outliers in both houses of Congress and holds a Senate seat that was won by the other party by 16 points in the last presidential election,” Kondik wrote. “Many of Tester’s red state Democratic colleagues have lost or retired in recent years, and it is a credit to his skill that he won three Senate elections in a state that is otherwise clearly Republican.”

Update 27/09/24, 17:43 ET: This article has been updated with a comment from Monica Robinson.